融合自适应RBF模型和多模态优化重要抽样的小失效概率可靠性分析方法

Reliability analysis method with small failure probability incorporated adaptive RBF model and multimodal optimization importance sampling

  • 摘要:可靠性分析的目的是估计结构在多种不确定因素作用下的失效概率,而传统的方法如有限元分析等在进行可靠性分析时非常耗时。针对这一问题该文提出了一种新的主动学习(AL)结构可靠性分析方法,该方法结合了径向基函数(RBF)模型和基于多模态优化的重要抽样(IS)技术,旨在高效准确地估计小失效概率。该方法采用RBF模型建立基于实验设计(DoE)的真实功能函数的元模型,得到代理极限状态平面(LSS),然后利用基于进化多目标优化的多模态优化(EMO-MMO)方法获得代理LSS上的最可能点(MPP),根据每个MPP的权重建立辅助概率密度函数(iPDF)。最后根据收敛准则不断添加新的训练点让RBF模型足够精确,利用最后一次训练的RBF模型,求解出结构失效概率。算例验证结果表明基于主动学习的径向基函数重要抽样(AL-RBF-IS)方法能够在保证准确度的同时显著减少所需的训练点数量和计算时间,特别是在处理小失效概率问题时表现出色。

    Abstract:The purpose of structural reliability analysis is to estimate the failure probability of a structure under the action of multiple uncertainties, and traditional methods such as finite element analysis are very time-consuming in performing reliability analysis. To address this problem a new active learning (AL) method for structural reliability analysis that combines a radial basis function (RBF) model and an important sampling (IS) technique based on multimodal optimization is proposed, aiming at estimating small failure probabilities efficiently and accurately. The method uses the RBF model to build a metamodel of the true performance function based on the design of experiments (DoE), obtains the surrogate limit state surface (LSS), and then adopts the evolutionary multi-objective optimization-based multimodal optimization (EMO-MMO) method to acquire the most probable point (MPP) on the surrogate LSS, and builds an instrumental probability density functions (iPDF) based on the weight of each MPP. Finally, new training points are continuously added according to the convergence criterion to make the RBF model sufficiently accurate, and the structural failure probability is solved using the last trained RBF model. The verification results compared with classical reliability analysis and a complex engineering example show that the AL-RBF-IS method can significantly reduce the number of required training points and computing time while guaranteeing the accuracy, especially performing well when dealing with small failure probability problems.

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